Sanitsuda Ekachai's article in the Bangkok Post of 22 August is a frightening yet convincing depiction of Mr. Thaksin's designs for Thailand. I think it's unlikely, though, that there will be a clash of wills. One by one, the institutions that form the checks and balances in Thailand's fledgling democracy are being undermined through co-optation or intimidation. Similar to a game of go, he is slowing putting in place the stones that will ensure his long-term domination. There is only one institution that blocks his path to total power, and even that institution is being probed for weaknesses. In the meantime, he knows that he can afford to bide his time, as long as he keep the gullible Thai people happy by tossing them the odd bread crumb every now and then. Khun Sanitsuda thinks that there will be a clash of wills between the NGOs and the government, but I don't think the will to resist is there. The urban constituency, traditionally the strongest opponents of dictatorship, won't put up a fight unless there's some galvanizing trauma. Barring that, it will just sit there like a frog in a pot of water on a stove until it's boiled to death. The rural constituency will vote for all the free-money programs that are paid for by their children and grandchildren. The NGOs will be painted as unpatriotic and unreasonable, key leaders will be quietly neutralized, as they so often were during the 1973-1976 interlude, and the consolidation of power will continue. So it is quite possible that Mr. Thaksin will rule for many more years. Whether that will be good for the country, of course, is another matter.


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